Ibekimi Oriamaja Reports
Fitch, a leading global rating company, has predicted that the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, will win the 2023 general elections.
Fitch stated in a report that previous polls showing Peter Obi, the presidential flagbearer of the Labour Party (LP), ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), were mostly based on online responses.
While the report stated that Obi is unlikely to win next year’s election, it also stated that Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win because a split opposition vote will favor the ruling party’s candidate.
Because only 36.0% of Nigerians use the internet (World Bank, 2020), the report concludes, “we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi.” We also point out that these polls indicate that a sizable number of voters are still undecided.
“Even if these national polls were correct, Obi’s lack of support in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority north would make it difficult for him to win next year’s election.” Indeed, the North is home to the vast majority of all voters, and turnout in this region is relatively high, highlighting the importance of the Northern electorate.
“According to Nigeria’s 1999 constitution, a candidate can be elected only if they receive a majority of overall votes as well as more than 25.0% of votes in at least 24 of the country’s 36 states.” Obi’s Labour Party’s infrastructure in the North is limited, so he will struggle to meet this second voting requirement.
“In fact, in many northern constituencies, the Labour Party is not even fielding candidates for the Senate or the House of Representatives.” Furthermore, historically, the northern electorate has voted for presidential candidates from their region. Obi is a Christian from the South (Anambra State), so increasing his voter share in the North will be difficult.”
“While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will likely do well for a third-party candidate,” it said. In Nigeria, no third-party candidate has ever received more than 7.5% of the vote. However, because of his frugal reputation and large social media following, we anticipate Obi will receive a larger share of the vote than previous third-party candidates.
“As a result, we believe Obi’s popularity will split the opposition vote, benefiting the PDP.” The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner, and we believe the only way for the party to win is to expand its vote in the South West and North Central states while maintaining large majorities in the Southsouth and Southeast.
“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south, particularly in the Southsouth and Southeast, we believe it is unlikely that the main opposition party will gain more votes in these parts of the country.”
“Indeed, we continue to believe that Tinubu of the APC is best positioned to win the presidential election.” We expect the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, to build on its strong showing in the North. Given Tinubu’s background as a former governor of Lagos, the party is likely to improve its performance in the South West. Furthermore, with the APC in power since 2015, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages.
“Protests and social unrest are likely to rise in the aftermath of Tinubu’s victory.” Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an unspoken agreement that the presidency is rotated between Northern and Southern states, as well as between Christians and Muslims.”
