Ibekimi Oriamaja Reports
The global oil consumption is now expected to reach 99.7 million barrels per day in 2022 and 101.8 million bpd in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The organization that offers data, forecasts, and analysis on the global oil industry indicated in its most recent Oil Market Report (OMR) that the projection was dependent on rising oil use for power production and the switch by several nations from gas to oil.
With gas costs on the rise, many nations have discovered a real alternative in the use of crude oil products, which has increased the consumption of the black gold.
The IEA report noted that “world oil demand is now anticipated at 99.7 million bpd in 2022 and 101.8 million bpd in 2023.”
Nigeria has maintained to lead the list of underperforming countries in Africa, despite OPEC’s recent little increase in member countries’ quotas.
In July, the nation produced a pitiful 1.083 million barrels per day (bpd) as opposed to the 1.826 million bpd that the international oil cartel had allotted to it, a shortfall of about 800,000 bpd.
The military has recently been heavily deployed in the Niger Delta to combat oil theft, which has been blamed for the inability to drill for more crude.
The nation has been unable to benefit from the high prices of crude oil at a time when the price has above $100 on the world market for months, a development that has had a detrimental impact on the economy.
In addition, the new agreement with an ex-militant named Mr. Government Ekpemupolo, also known as Tompolo, valued at roughly N4 billion per month, suggests that the federal government has realized the futility of using just official forces to conduct surveillance activities on the pipelines.
President Muhammadu Buhari maintained that it was unfortunate that local warlords were guarding the assets while Nigeria has a strong military when he assumed office in 2015.
After that, he pursued Tompolo, who was handling a surveillance contract under the Goodluck Jonathan administration, who pursued him for years while he was underground before his recent re-emergence.
Despite Nigeria’s persistent underperformance, the IEA report noted that the world’s oil supply reached a post-pandemic high of 100.5 million bpd in July as maintenance was finished in the North Sea, Canada, and Kazakhstan.
Additionally, it followed OPEC+’s increase in total oil output of 530,000 bpd in accordance with higher targets and a rise of 870,000 bpd in non-OPEC+ production last month.
Refinery throughputs increased by 1.1 million bpd in July, according to the IEA, and are expected to increase by another 350,000 bpd this month, bringing runs to their highest level since January 2020.
“The growth was higher than the demand for refined products, which caused cracks and refinery margins to fall far below the record highs observed in June. Now expected to increase by 1.3 million bpd in 2019 and 2.6 million bpd in 2022, according to the report.
Regarding the falling oil prices, it was noted that from a peak in June, prices had fallen by almost $30/bbl due to expanding oil supplies and growing worries about the status of the economy.
“At the same time, costs for electricity and natural gas have risen to previously unheard-of heights, encouraging some nations to move from using gas to using oil.
The most recent data “confirms higher oil burn in power generation, mainly in Europe and the Middle East but also across Asia, with numerous locations experiencing blistering heatwaves,” the IEA stated.
According to the report, the ban imposed by the European Union (EU) on imports of Russian crude and goods, which will take full effect in February 2023, may cause further supply losses because 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of products and 1.3 million bpd of crude must find new homes.
“OPEC+ agreed in early August to raise its production target for September by just 100,000 bpd, a considerable decrease from the 648,000 bpd projected increases for July and August.
According to the IEA, “the group underlined that extremely restricted spare capacity should be utilised with considerable caution in reaction to serious supply interruptions,” indicating that significant additional OPEC+ output increases are unlikely in the near future.
