Major political events that would shape 2023 general elections

In the next three days, the world’s first big election of 2023 will be held, as Nigerians head to the polls to elect President Muhammadu Buhari’s successor.

Buhari, who emerged as President in 2015 amidst heightened hope as a messianic figure that would rescue the country from downslide, will head home for retirement on May 29.

Also, the 2023 election’s impact will reverberate worldwide, being Africa’s biggest economy and most populous black country.

Although the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, disclosed that 18 presidential candidates would participate in the February 25 election, only four candidates have qualified as frontrunners.

These are Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC; Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP; Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP; and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP.

Some statistics have shown, unlike past elections, which had two major contenders, the 2023 presidential election features a third force; the battle for votes is between Bola Tinubu, APC; Atiku Abubakar, PDP; Peter Obi, LP; and Rabiu Kwankwaso, NNPP.

According to various permutations, there is a slight probability that none of the above candidates will secure 25 per cent of the vote in two-thirds of the states – a constitutional requirement for a winner – which is needed to win outrightly. If that happens, it would be the first time the country would see a run-off election.

According to the London Economist, Nigeria has been cursed with bad rulers. It noted that since the military regime gave way to democracy in 1999, elections have offered voters an ugly selection of the ancient, the incompetent and, most recently, albeit a former military dictator.

“Parties have stoked ethnic divisions, intimidated their opponents and bought votes. Many federal, state and local candidates seek power to grab a share of the country’s oil wealth. Successive governments have been deeply corrupt,” the Economist wrote in its 12th February election.

Meanwhile, preparations for the 2023 elections have been in top gear, with many candidates rounding off campaigns in most of the 36 states of the federation. Although not without spectacular drama, there have been major moments and events that would, in one way or another, shape the forthcoming general elections