OSUN ELECTION: Major Horse Race and Power Wrestling

By Adeleye Kunle

The governorship election in Osun State next Saturday will be contested by 18 political parties, with five major parties competing to outperform one another. However, the election will eventually become a two-horse race, as it was in 2018, Track News reports.

The Accord Party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Labour Party (LP), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) have all expressed serious interest in forming the next government on November 27, 2022, but only three of the parties, the Accord, APC, and PDP, are actively campaigning across the state.
Following intense political activities, the battle appears to be between the APC’s Adegboyega Oyetola, the incumbent governor, and his known opponent, PDP Senator Ademola Adeleke; this is a re-enactment of the 2018 scenario.

However, the dynamics have changed since the 2018 election; unlike then, when workers’ welfare and school merger and reclassification were major issues for the election, the incumbent governor has addressed the majority of workers’ agitation, with the exception of backlog of salary arrears and pension.

New problems

Internal squabbles between the two major parties have resulted in new candidates for the 2018 election, which will be hotly contested between the APC and the PDP. The Labor Party and its candidate, Rt. Hon. Lasun Yusuf, arose from the APC’s internal crisis, while the PDP’s produced Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi of the Accord Party and Mr. Goke Omigbodun of the SDP.

However, the dynamics have changed since the 2018 election; unlike then, when workers’ welfare and school merger and reclassification were major issues for the election, the incumbent governor has addressed the majority of workers’ agitation, with the exception of backlog of salary arrears and pension.

Prospects and challenges for Oyetola

Oyetola, the incumbent governor and APC candidate, has the party’s structure to draw on. It is spread across the state’s 332 wards, and the presence of party executives in all 3,763 polling units is a significant boost for the governor. Aside from the party’s reach, Oyetola’s performance over the last three and a half years has endeared him to many in Osun, particularly the elites and civil servants.

The governor reversed the state’s existing education policy in response to popular demand; despite the fact that it pitted him against his predecessor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, he aligned with popular demand on the issue.

He has also ensured and maintained regular and full payment of salaries and pensions, as well as reversed some of the policies that labor unions were protesting. These include the replacement of Coordinating Directors with Permanent Secretaries in government ministries and agencies, promotion with pay, and the replacement of Council Managers with the Head of Local Government Administration, among many other reforms in favor of labor unions.

Agitation

Similarly, in the health sector, doctors’ agitation was addressed through the approval of both CONHESS and CONMESS, which reduced industrial action in the sector since his election. He also established a health insurance scheme for workers and peasants in Osun to ensure affordable access to quality healthcare.

These and other policy changes have shifted the dynamic in favor of the governor. The state’s various labor unions and the NLC appear to have aligned themselves with Oyetola.

In a statement issued on behalf of the forum of heads of government ministries, departments, and agencies, the Head of Service, Dr. Olowogboyega Oyebade, stated that workers are pleased with the governor’s policies and will work to ensure his return to office.

The power broker for APC
Aside from Oyetola’s acceptance among elites and civil servants, another factor that works in his favor and that of his party is the unity among power brokers across the senatorial districts.

Central Osun

This is the nerve center for anyone hoping to win the Osun election. The senatorial district is the most organized and has the most power brokers and votes.
The APC is the most powerful in the area, with Chief Bisi Akande representing the Ila Federal Constituency. Engineer Sola Akinwumi, Hon. Isa Ojewale, Prince Gboyega Famodun, Hon. Akintunde Adegboye, Oluomo Sunday Akere, Senator Ajibola Basiru, and a former Deputy Governor, Mrs Grace Laoye-Ponle are also in the district.

Aside from the political power brokers, some other prominent sons and daughters in the area appear to be at ease with the Governor’s calm and conservative demeanor since taking office.

District of Osun West

Over the years, the district has lacked proper leadership, with different leaders refusing to acknowledge one another’s superiority. The APC in this district, however, will rely on the abilities of the Deputy Governor, Gboyega Alabi, former Minister of Police Affairs, Jelili Adesiyan, Alhaji Bola Oyebamiji, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Patricia Etteh, and other public office holders in the zone.

District of Osun East

Senator Iyiola Omisore, the party’s National Secretary, Engineer Awotorebo, Prince Felix Awofisayo, Sooko Adewooyin Adeleke, Hon. Lawrence Ayeni, Hon. Ajibola Famurewa Olosunjela, and Professor Isaac Adewole, among many others, rely on the wisdom of Senator Iyiola Omisore in the district.

Challenges

A major challenge for Oyetola and the APC is the feud with his predecessor, Aregbesola, which resulted in the formation of The Osun Progressive Party (TOP). However, during one of his rallies in Ejigbo, the hometown of former Speaker Najeem Salaam, the governor urged party members across Osun to engage in genuine reconciliation.

Similarly, Elder Adelowo Adebiyi, Chairman of TOP, urged its members not to work for the PDP, claiming that the Minister has openly declared support for the APC.

Adeleke’s prospects and difficulties
Senator Adeleke, on the other hand, decided after the 2018 election to address a major flaw in his personality ahead of the 2022 election. He returned to the United States, where he is said to have obtained a degree in criminology, before returning to Osun and touring some parts of the state to rally party members.

A significant advantage for the senator, whose main hobby is dancing, is his street credibility, particularly among the party’s lower ranks and in some towns across the state. Furthermore, the PDP, like the APC, has a strong presence throughout the state.

Brokers of power

The PDP also has many gladiators who could help it at the polls, but many of these power brokers are not fully behind Adeleke’s election as the party’s flag bearer and have stayed away from its activities, including campaigns.

The party’s founding fathers, including the state’s first elected governor, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, his deputy, Erelu Olusola Obada, former Board members, Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun and Senator Olu Alabi, among many others, have decided to withdraw their support, which is a major setback for Adeleke.

Ogunbiyi, Akin

The insurance magnate’s credentials are intimidating, but his organization, the Accord Party, lacks the kind of popularity that the APC and PDP have had for decades.

During a conversation with journalists at the NUJ Press Centre in Osogbo, however, Ogunbiyi stated, “Accord Party’s structure can compete with that of APC and PDP.”

“We have submitted names of agents in all of the state’s polling units, and our people have seen our sincerity.”

“They know we can do what the APC and PDP failed to do when they were in power.” Our manifesto says a lot.

“Neither of the two candidates has been able to demonstrate any.” We have workable solutions and people who support them.

“The people who are tired of PDP and APC misrule are our power brokers, and we will triumph on July 16′′.

Labour Party and Lasun Yusuf
While serving in the APC-led legislative arm of government, the former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives was a well-known name. The party, however, has yet to organize a public campaign rally.

Though the Party Chairman, Comrade Bello, has stated that the party has begun house-to-house campaigns throughout the state, the general public has only heard about his plans through television and radio debates.

Apart from a few supporters who defected from the APC, the party is barely heard outside of the state capital, where its secretariat is based.

SDP and Goke Omigbodun
Goke Omigbodun was a disciple of Omisore until the 2018 governorship election, but he has decided to run for governor as well. It remains to be seen whether he can take advantage of the SDP structure.

However, he has vowed to usurp power from the APC, particularly through his “MAT” (Mining, Agriculture, and Technology) agenda.