The Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 is worse than any other northern President – Details emerged

By Adeleye Kunle

Unless a miracle occurs and a third force succeeds next year, Nigeria faces two perilous options. One is another Northern president to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari. The other option is a Muslim-Muslim presidency, which includes a Muslim president and a Muslim vice president. Nigeria would have either a Northerner, Atiku Abubakar, as President or a Muslim, Bola Tinubu, as President, and a Muslim, Kashim Shettima, as Vice President. Either outcome would jeopardize Nigeria’s unity and stability as a multi-ethnic and multi-religious country.

To be honest, neither Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, nor Atiku, the presidential candidate of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is the best outcome for Nigeria. Rather, victory for Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, and his respected technocratic running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed, founder and pro-chancellor of Baze University, Abuja, is the best outcome.

There are two reasons for this. First, an Obi/Baba-Ahmed victory would ensure that the presidency goes to the South-East rather than the South, as it should. Second, while an Obi/Baba-Ahmed presidency will not be perfect and will not radically transform Nigeria – that cannot happen unless Nigeria is properly restructured – it will be a breath of fresh air. More importantly, it would aid in preventing the total disaster and national/international shame that a Tinubu or, to a lesser extent, an Atiku presidency would bring to Nigeria. Make no mistake, Tinubu and Atiku are too tainted – Tinubu far more so – to be Nigeria’s president, so integrity must be paramount in next year’s presidential election.

So, once again, a victorious third force is the best possible outcome in 2023. This is not wishful thinking in truly democratic and enlightened societies, as evidenced by Emmanuel Macron’s election as President of France in 2017. Nigeria, on the other hand, is not a truly democratic or enlightened society. Its politics are fueled by a personality cult, unexplained wealth, and primal emotions. Thus, unless a miracle occurs, unless Nigerians demonstrate game-changing sophistication at the polls, an Obi/Baba-Ahmed victory is unlikely. Rather, Nigeria would face one of two disasters: a Tinubu presidency or an Atiku presidency!

So, if, in the absence of a victorious third force, Nigeria is forced to choose between another Northern president and a Muslim-Muslim presidency, which is worse? Unmistakably, a Muslim-Muslim presidency, and here’s why. Let us begin with yet another Northern president. In May, I published an article titled “2023 presidency: Nigeria faces greater turbulence in the absence of a power shift” (Tracknews , May 12, 2022). I argued that if another Northerner succeeded Buhari in 2023, Nigeria would be deeply unstable. The Southern Governors’ Forum and the Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum both advocated for power rotation to the South.

But, if power is returned to the South, where must it go? Of course, the South-East is the only geopolitical zone in the South that hasn’t produced a president since Nigeria’s return to civil rule in 1999. If fairness required that the presidency be given to the South, then the same fairness required that it be given to the South-East. Unfortunately, the fairness argument had no traction with the two major parties, who openly ignored the South-case. East’s Thus, the APC chose Tinubu, the moneybag from the South-West, as its presidential candidate, while Atiku emerged as the PDP’s presidential candidate, raising the prospect of another president from the North.

But what makes another Northern president a lesser of two evils? So, assuming Obi does not win next year, what is the shortest path to the presidency for the South-East? A Northern president is the answer. If Atiku is elected, he will serve only one term, but even if he serves two terms, power will return to the South in 2031, and the South-East will have another shot at the presidency within eight years. In contrast, if Tinubu is elected president for two terms, power will first return to the North in 2031, then to the South in 2039.

So, with Tinubu as President, the Igbo would have to wait another 16 years for the presidency, bringing the total to 40 years since 1999. They would have to wait eight years if Atiku were elected. Anything that shortens the Igbo’s path to the presidency must surely be preferable to anything that lengthens it; thus, another Northern president is a lesser evil. What about a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket? First, I strongly disagree with the nonsense that there is nothing wrong with a Muslim-Muslim ticket because competence is what matters. According to that twisted logic, there’s nothing wrong with a Northern-Northern ticket, or even an all-male cabinet, because only men can be competent ministers. Those who spew such nonsense are self-serving sophists, whom Plato chastised for “prizing rhetorical success over philosophical truth.”

Tinubu justified his choice of a Muslim-Muslim ticket by claiming that there are no competent Northern Christians. Of course, the decision was based on electoral calculations rather than competence. Kano State Governor Abdullahi Ganduje recently told Muslim clerics, “We advised him (Tinubu) to pick a Muslim deputy, and he agreed.” Tinubu, according to Alhaji Tanko Yakasai, cannot win with a Northern Christian. So it’s all about electoral fortunes here, not national interest!

If Tinubu is elected next year, he will embark on a dangerous path of religious strife. First and foremost, a Muslim-Muslim presidency would be a tinderbox waiting to explode in Nigeria. Second, if Tinubu is elected and serves two terms, he will be succeeded by a Northern-Muslim president. That means Nigeria will have a Muslim president for 24 years in a row, from 2015 to 2039. Really? Is that feasible? Tinubu’s election would be disastrous for ethnic and religious harmony. A Tinubu presidency would add 16 years to Igbo’s path to the presidency and 24 years to Muslim hegemony in Nigeria. Nigeria must avoid disaster!

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