By Adeleye Kunle
Though criticisms of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC’s presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket have persisted, the party has maintained that “religion cannot always determine our path.”
The Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, reacted angrily to the nomination of Kashim Shettima, former governor of Borno state, as the APC vice presidential candidate, saying Tinubu and his party made a mistake in such a polarized country.
However, the fact remains that politics is a numbers game, and real-time elections are all about votes.
As a result, the size of a political party’s support base in terms of supporters is a factor in winning an election. Awofeso and Irabor (2017) used game theory as a theoretical model to unravel the scheming mechanism embedded in Nigeria’s political actors’ new dimension of cross-carpeting.
The study concluded that game theory is founded on the rationality of the game’s participants’ behavior.
In this light, we have gathered factors and reasons why a Muslim-Muslim ticket is Tinubu’s only option if he truly wants to win in 2023.
reducing Atiku’s strength in the North
Already, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, candidate from the North-East (Adamawa State), Atiku Abubakar, has posed a serious challenge to Tinubu, who is from the South-West.
Unfortunately for Tinubu, even if he fields a Christian or a Pastor as his running mate, the North-East is not secure.
With this reality, he must take the fight to the terrain of his true adversary, the North, where Atiku is from.
Although he is not regarded as a staunch ‘Muslim’ in the North, Atiku still wields significant influence and support, which can translate into votes. The PDP candidate could almost be certain of winning the North-East.
However, by selecting former two-term Borno State Governor Kashim Shettima, who is also a force to be reckoned with in the North-East, Tinubu has potentially neutralized all of Atiku’s strength and the bloc vote that could come from that political region.
The North, which has always determined the majority votes in Nigerian general elections, and the North-East in general, are Muslim majority areas. Tinubu’s political reality requires a Muslim vice presidential candidate who can relate to and appeal to the North.
Tinubu’s grip on Borno has been strengthened by the duo of Shettima, who was the Director-General of Tinubu’s campaign organization, and incumbent Governor, Prof. Babagana Zulum.
Meanwhile, Borno’s votes carry far more weight than those of Atiku’s home states of Taraba and Adamawa.
wishing to gain a Muslim majority North Tinubu wants to win the majority of votes and is working hard to appeal to the regions that matter the most politically.
In the upcoming 2023 presidential election, the APC candidate needs Northern votes more than the South-East and South-West.
Tinubu is counting on Shettima to deliver the North, specifically the North-East, while Buhari and the APC governors are expected to deliver the North-West and North-Central to the APC.
This permutation from these three key geopolitical regions could have influenced Tinubu’s Muslim/Muslim ticket choice.
The majority of people in the South-West are expected to vote for Tinubu. This cannot be said of Nigeria’s South-South and South-East regions. This is because the Muslim-Muslim ticket will be a major issue for some Christians in the South-South, South-West, and especially the South-East.
According to the results of the recent presidential elections in Nigeria, these regions typically do not vote for the APC. On this basis, it could be deduced that these regions cannot be Tinubu’s primary considerations, because political expediency dictates that political permutation primarily considers the opinions of ardent supporters and majority votes. Consideration could only be given to those who will vote.
The South-East and South-East cannot provide the necessary majority of votes. Remember that former President Goodluck Jonathan won the South-South and South-East in 2019, but lost the presidential election.
Even if Tinubu had chosen a Christian running mate, the South-South and South-East will vote for either the PDP or the Labour Party. Religion is unimportant in the South-West. The South-West is Nigeria’s most tolerant region. Tinubu, in the worst-case scenario, will win more than half of the South-West.
Northern states will be the most excited by the Tinubu/Shettima ticket; they will vote in large numbers for Tinubu and Shetima, both Muslims.
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